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Cecabank Report 2018
Our business model
The United States, Russia and the Asian giants
From an international perspective, the political situation has been turbulent
due to the
end of the United States’ hegemony as the world sole
superpower
. The recent international conflicts and tensions are the result of
a return to a multilateral world.
Russia and China, together with emerging powers such as India, are claiming
a predominant and influencing space,
transferring the centre of power from
West to East
. The lack of a clear European stance, together with the United
States (pending a protectionist policy), is suffering due to a loss of trust
between the traditional allied powers.
Due to the great financial tensions with China, the President of the United
States, Donald Trump, agreed with his Chinese counterpart Xi-Jinping at
the G20 summit held in Buenos Aires on 30 November to extend a period of
negotiations until March, with the aim of ending the high tariffs established
between both countries.
Central America
Central American countries have also experienced deep changes in 2018.
The latest example is Brazil, with the election of a far right president, Jail
Bolsonaro, on 1 January 2019.
Mexico, with López Obrador’s victory in July 2018, will have a centre-left
government for the first time, and Venezuela will face in upcoming months
the most serious political and economic crisis in its recent history.
Global economy
In the midst of a lagging global economy, the OCDE has lowered its
expectation of global GDP growth
, estimating it at 3.7% for 2018 and 2019.
These figures are two tenths lower than the forecast made less than four
months ago.
Furthermore, the calming of tailwinds in countries such as Spain, in
addition to the rise of the price of petrol and the ECB’s interest rates, could
lead to weaker growth forecasts in states that are more affected by the
international environment.
Economic framework and
the state of the markets
The expansion of the global economy has waned in 2018; growth has
dropped throughout the year as successive sources of risk have been
materialising. The lax global financial conditions have added to the trade
tensions between the United States and China and the political uncertainty
in Europe, mainly due to the Brexit and the tax dispute in Italy.
4 | 4.1
The Spanish economy grew
2.5% in 2018