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Cecabank Report 2018
Our business model
Economic and regulatory environment
4 | 4.1
Political risks
Domestic outlook
The domestic political year has been marked by the change of Government,
following a motion of no-confidence presented by the Partido Socialista
Obrero Español to Partido Popular on 1 June. This change in the Spanish
executive power made Pedro Sánchez the President, with the support of
Unidos Podemos and the Catalan independent parties ERC and PdeCAT. This
also led the Partido Popular to open a primary process that made Pablo
Casado president of the conservatives.
The irruption of VOX in the Spanish political landscape fits in with the
reactionary and Eurosceptic movements taking place throughout Europe.
Their appearance is also a result of the political entrenchment stemming
from the territorial crisis in Catalonia.
International politics
Europe
The main theme in the international agenda in 2018 and which will continue
in 2019 is the Brexit. After the European Council having approved the exit
agreement on 25 November, the British Prime Minister, Theresa May, does
not have the support required from the House of Commons to approve the
agreed text.
Europe also confirmed in 2018 that the emergence of
populist and
Eurosceptic movements
is unstoppable. Currently, this type of parties
already govern in Italy, Poland and Hungary, and they support conservative
governments in Austria and Finland, with a major influence in countries such
as France. Their speeches strongly focus on migration policies and play a
prominent role in street demonstrations: the
French yellow vests
being the
most recent example.
The year 2019 will also be a year of
renewal in EU institutional structure
.
On 31 December, Danièle Nouy’s term ended at the head of the SSM, whose
presidency has been taken over by the Italian Andrea Enria. Antonio Tajani,
the president of the European Parliament, will also be replaced in July 2019.
Furthermore, Mario Draghi and Jean Claude Juncker will abandon the ECB’s
and the European Commission’s management, respectively, in October, while
Donald Tusk will end his term in the European Council in November.
We will have to wait until spring for new
elections to the European
Parliament
. They will take place between 23 and 25 May, where the 27
member states will choose the composition of the community chamber.
The instability caused by the
change in government and the
further political fragmentation
have marked the outlook in 2018
2019 will be a year
of renewal in the EU
institutional structure
Europe has confirmed
the rise of populist and
eurosceptic movements