MEMORIA_A4-CECABANK

Cecabank Report 2018

Our business model

Economic and regulatory environment

4 | 4.1

Political risks

Domestic outlook

The domestic political year has been marked by the change of Government,

following a motion of no-confidence presented by the Partido Socialista

Obrero Español to Partido Popular on 1 June. This change in the Spanish

executive power made Pedro Sánchez the President, with the support of

Unidos Podemos and the Catalan independent parties ERC and PdeCAT. This

also led the Partido Popular to open a primary process that made Pablo

Casado president of the conservatives.

The irruption of VOX in the Spanish political landscape fits in with the

reactionary and Eurosceptic movements taking place throughout Europe.

Their appearance is also a result of the political entrenchment stemming

from the territorial crisis in Catalonia.

International politics

Europe

The main theme in the international agenda in 2018 and which will continue

in 2019 is the Brexit. After the European Council having approved the exit

agreement on 25 November, the British Prime Minister, Theresa May, does

not have the support required from the House of Commons to approve the

agreed text.

Europe also confirmed in 2018 that the emergence of

populist and

Eurosceptic movements

is unstoppable. Currently, this type of parties

already govern in Italy, Poland and Hungary, and they support conservative

governments in Austria and Finland, with a major influence in countries such

as France. Their speeches strongly focus on migration policies and play a

prominent role in street demonstrations: the

French yellow vests

being the

most recent example.

The year 2019 will also be a year of

renewal in EU institutional structure

On 31 December, Danièle Nouy’s term ended at the head of the SSM, whose

presidency has been taken over by the Italian Andrea Enria. Antonio Tajani,

the president of the European Parliament, will also be replaced in July 2019.

Furthermore, Mario Draghi and Jean Claude Juncker will abandon the ECB’s

and the European Commission’s management, respectively, in October, while

Donald Tusk will end his term in the European Council in November.

We will have to wait until spring for new

elections to the European

Parliament

. They will take place between 23 and 25 May, where the 27

member states will choose the composition of the community chamber.

The instability caused by the

change in government and the

further political fragmentation

have marked the outlook in 2018

2019 will be a year

of renewal in the EU

institutional structure

Europe has confirmed

the rise of populist and

eurosceptic movements