Rafael Linde, Director of International Development and Global Relationship Management at Cecabank, reflects on the challenges and priorities in the evolution of cross-border payments in a context of exponential growth in transaction volumes in Cinco Días.
According to data from the Bank of England, these payments are expected to reach $250 trillion by 2027, an increase of $100 trillion in just a decade. This global flow of capital is supported by a complex infrastructure of platforms, clearing houses, and correspondent banks, whose efficiency and security are key to international trade.
Linde highlights that, although the G20 has set ambitious goals to improve the speed, transparency, and cost of cross-border payments, none of them have been achieved to date, according to monitoring by the Financial Stability Board (FSB). In particular, the goal of having 75% of payments cleared in less than an hour contrasts with the current reality, where only between 1% and 30% meet this deadline. Given this situation, it is necessary to reconsider some goals, especially those related to speed, prioritising security as an essential element.
The acceleration of payments entails significant risks, such as fraud and money laundering, the management of which already requires a multi-million dollar annual investment. If transactions were settled in seconds, there would be less scope for compliance controls, potentially compromising the integrity of the system. Furthermore, the 24/7 operations required for instant payments pose technical and financial challenges for institutions, from ongoing accounting to liquidity management and exchange rate risk.
Linde also warns of the risk of market concentration in the hands of large entities capable of assuming these costs, which could affect competition and contradict the goal of reducing payment costs. In this sense, he proposes a deeper reflection on the economic model of paid services, questioning the perception that many users have of free services and advocating for providers to define their commercial policies.
Finally, he emphasises that improving the user experience should guide the industry's efforts, avoiding standardised solutions for diverse realities. The urgency to accelerate payments shouldn't be the same across all geographies, especially when in regions like SEPA, payments are already processed in minutes. In a challenging global environment with limited resources, Linde concludes that sustainability, security, and trust must be the pillars on which the future of cross-border payments is built.
