Feeling of market, by Alberto Carbonell
In the meeting of the Fed of yesterday were not produced changes nor in the monetary policy, nor in the strategy of the plan of purchases, just as was expected. Nonetheless, in the subsequent press conference the Fed was more aggressive in its statements of which you would be able to expect view the meeting of June. Powell recognised that the economy has moved forward towards its objectives and that will be continued assessing the progress in the next meetings. Probably the key phrase in the statement of the FOMC went the next one: “from December, the economy has moved forward towards these objectives and the Committee will continue assessing the progress in the next meetings». Although there was a debate on how much of aggressive went these reductions in the statement, the majority all right was in recognising the progress in its economic objectives, in fact, us on an announcement from reduction as the approach changes to Jackson Hole the next month (assuming that the NFP of July does not disappoint). In the questions, Powell continue trapped in the narrative of the temporary inflation and it repeated the phrase of that they are in a «path far from» the progress of the necessary employment. In addition, did not indicate that the formal announcement of the tapering is imminent.
In Europe, Panetta remark that the risks of having a tall inflation are tall but that the possibility of that there is an overwarming is limited.
The reliable index GfK of August fell a - 0.3% (1% expected). The prices to the import grew about 12.9YY (12.6% expected), 1.6% MM (1.5% expected).
The FED decides unanimously maintain the interest rates in the range 0% - 0.25%. It has reiterated that the increase of the inflation is owed largely to temporary factors and that still lack for progress to put the tapering on top of the table.
Foreign Currencies by Enrique Velasco
The FED last night took the relay and it complied with the consensus of market when not getting around a lot of the posture of caution on the inflation that it has maintained recently. Although you can say that it suggested an incremental approach when saying for the first time that the economy has progressed in the objectives of the tapering ( creation of employment). It will be necessary to monitor the evolution of is phrase and see if in the next meetings add terms as “further progress” or “substantial further progress” for determining the chosen moment for its announcement. After yesterday's meeting, Jackson Hole loses ballot papers to be the picked date for this task, unless the detail of employment of next week surprises very positively (between 1y 1.5 million employments created). All of this gave support to assets of risk and it made that the dollar lost field when dealing with its main members. Of keeping up this tone in the next few days of appetite for the risk, would be able to see the highest part of the short-term range of pairs as an EURUSD 1.19 and GBPUSD 1.40.
The emerging also received with gains the not imminent stock by the Federal Reserve, and it would be predictable to see the USDMXN again in the area of 19.65 and the USDBRL under 5. More surprising is the evolution of the CHF. The breakage of the USDCHF of the 91 has returned to pressure with a downward trend the EURCHF that it already pays contributions under 1.08. It will be interesting to see if we have some type of reaction by the SNB and know until point is not comfortable with the level of its currency. In the area of 0.90 comes the short-term upward trend of the USDCHF and seems a good level to open long positions and play that possible improvement of the conditions (American job market, evolution of the variant Deltae uncertainty generated by the regulation of certain sectors by the Chinese government) that it gives him margin to the FED to announce its expected decision about the tapering.
GE 2.00pm CPI (Jul.)
US 2.30pm GDP (2tr.)
US 2.30pm requests of unemployment benefit (Jul.24) US 4.00pm existing sale of houses (Jun.)
US 8.00pm decision of types (Jul.28)