Feeling of market, by Alberto Carbonell
The reflación follows installed in the main world economies. The recoveries in the prices of the joined raw materials to the statements Brainard of the Fed, in which made see that the dropped out of stimuli is still distant despite the fact that the inflation can exceed the objective of 2%, do not do more than strengthening the current stage. Therefore nothing new during yesterday's session for the markets, that they lived a session of collected of profits after the Monday's rise.
The Asian indexes anticipate a bullish meeting for today when registering gains that, in the case of the index Hang Seng, exceed broadly 2%.
For today's meeting the most significant detail day will be the detail of employment ADP of February in the United States. It is expected that increases from 174k until 200k. Additionally are published the PMI in the the United Kingdom, the Euro area and the United States. In addition in the United States the ISM is published not manufacturer that it owe remain in high levels, and the book Beige of the Fed.
When it comes to appearances, talk Harker, Bostic and Evans of the Fed. In Europe talk of Cos, Panetta, Guindos and Schnabel.
The retail sales of January fell in January a - 4.5% MM (0.3% expected) - 8.7% YY (1.7% expected).
The provisional CPI of February grew 0.2% MM, 1.1% YY, in line with the expected thing.
The unemployment summed 44.4k people in February (10k expected).
Foreign Currencies by Enrique Velasco
The market gradually seems that goes digesting the rise of throw away as thus was seen in the meeting of yesterday, in which a strong reduction of indexes of volatility was appreciated of the bonds (Move). This allowed that the dollar lost big part of the field that it had cattle these days ago when dealing with its main members before the expectations of an earlier stock by the FED. Following on from this, yesterday the turn went of another member of the Federal Reserve, Brainard, that which saw to cool these expectations when pointing out among other things, that they are not going to act to the first indication that see of that the inflation can exceed its objective of 2%. In this way the EURUSD opens this morning in the levels of 1.21 after supporting yesterday in psychological level of 1.20 and the GBPUSD in the 1.40 after checking the significant support of 1.3860. Furthermore, the EURCHF follows the initiated upward trend in mid last month, reaching levels close to 1.11 and maintained mostly by the generated positive environment for the process of vaccination.
Furthermore, the emerging currencies, despite the internal problems that have emerged these days, especially in Brazil, with the final decisions of Bolsonaro, also recovered yesterday part of the lost ground these days ago. We think that if the market trusts in the skills of the central banks to contain the rise of throw away them nominal amounts, as long as they do not avenge accompanied by rises in the breakevens of inflation, can see a continuation of the trend of depreciation of the dollar, above all against the emerging currencies.
Schedule of events
EZ 10.00am Markit PMI (Feb.)
UK 10.30am Markit PMI (Feb.)
US 1.00pm MBA mortgage applications (Feb.)
US 2.15pm change in employment ADP (Feb.)
US 3.45pm Markit PMI (Feb.)
US 4.00pm ISM of services (Feb.)
US 8.00pm Book Beige of the Fed